ALL

Historical Earnings Beat Rate and Post-Earnings Drift

Over the last eight reported quarters, ALL has delivered an 8/8 beat rate, meaning it has cleared the published EPS estimate in every single one of those quarters. The average earnings surprise across that same stretch is 105.7%, a figure that reflects how far actual EPS has landed above the consensus.

The multi-day price reaction has matched the headline beats: the average 5-day price move in the five trading days after earnings across those eight quarters is 4.4%, classified as an upward drift.

Zooming in on the four most recent reports, the pattern is consistent but not uniform. On 2026-04-29, ALL reported actual EPS of $10.65 against an estimate of $7.31, a 45.7% surprise, and the stock rose 2.32% the next day and 2.63% over the following five days. On 2026-02-04, actual EPS was $14.31 versus $9.83, a 45.6% surprise, producing a 3.90% next-day gain but a -1.15% five-day drift. On 2025-11-05, actual EPS of $11.17 beat the $7.67 estimate by 45.6%, with the stock up 1.67% the next day and 7.42% over five days. On 2025-07-30, actual EPS of $5.94 crushed the $3.25 estimate by 82.8%, driving a 5.71% next-day move and an 8.70% five-day drift.

Options-Flow Dynamics Around the August 5 Report

ALL's next scheduled earnings release is on 2026-08-05 after the close, with a consensus EPS estimate of $6.06. The current snapshot shows the stock at $262.97, sitting above its 50-day EMA of $241.84 and with an RSI of 61.6.

Because the report arrives after the bell, options expiring that same week and the following week will price in the expected earnings move. The historical record shows next-day moves ranging from 1.67% to 5.71%, while five-day drifts have ranged from -1.15% to 8.70%. That dispersion means implied volatility can be repriced quickly once the actual number and guidance are released. Heavy directional flow into one side of the options market can also create gamma-related pinning or acceleration around the event.

What a Disciplined Trader Watches For

A disciplined trader around earnings typically does not predict the report but manages the reaction. For ALL, the first thing to watch is the next-day gap: recent quarters have produced next-day moves of 2.32%, 3.90%, 1.67%, and 5.71%. A gap that gets held into the close and into day two often aligns with the historical average 5-day drift of 4.4%.

The second thing to watch is continuation versus fade. In the last four quarters, the 5-day drift was higher than the next-day move in three of four cases, with the exception being the February 2026 report, where a 3.90% next-day gain faded to -1.15% by day five. That quarter is a concrete reminder that a beat does not guarantee follow-through.

Third, the stock’s position above its 50-day EMA at $241.84 and an RSI of 61.6 gives a technical backdrop for anyone tracking whether momentum is stretched or still has room.

For a deeper dive into how institutions are positioned ahead of the 2026-08-05 report, look at the full institutional verdict.